The game of the year is finally here, and it features an NFC Championship Game rematch. It is also likely to decide the NFC’s top seed this season. The San Francisco 49ers (8-3; 6-5-0 ATS) are back in Eastern Pennsylvania, ready to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1; 6-2-3 ATS). Lincoln Financial Field is no stranger to big games these days, and at 4:25 p.m. EDT, it’ll host another this Sunday. Will the 49ers get revenge, or are the Eagles destined to repeat atop the NFC? Buckle up.
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49ers Back to Business
Remember when San Francisco lost three straight games? That was weird, and is well behind them, as a 31-13 win in Seattle gave the Niners a third consecutive victory. Considering what Seattle’s offense normally does, let’s begin with how impressive San Francisco’s defense has been. They allow the fewest points per game this season, 15.5. The 49ers allow 4.8 yards per play (5th), 6.2 yards per pass attempt (2nd), 82.0 rushing yards per game (2nd), and have 21 takeaways (2nd). Their 33 sacks are 11th in the NFL. Only three teams have crossed the 20-point mark against San Francisco, and two of those instances were during the losing streak.
Now onto the offense, which is third in points per game. They average 28.2 a week, and the only three instances of San Francisco not scoring at least 25 came during the losing streak. The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play, the second-most in the NFL. They’re also tied for the third-fewest giveaways and have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks. No team picks up more yards per pass attempt, while Christian McCaffrey is one of the league’s greatest threats on the ground. Good luck stopping this team.
Philly Finding Ways to Win
It hasn’t been pretty, especially lately, but the Eagles remain the only team in the NFL without multiple losses. Their latest escape act came thanks to a 59-yard field goal to force overtime and a touchdown in the extra period to win it. A 37-point outburst isn’t shocking for this offense that’s also averaging 282. points per game. Surprisingly, that’s despite 16 giveaways giving Philadelphia a negative turnover differential for the season. They’ve also allowed 29 sacks, which is 20th. However, the Eagles average 5.4 yards per play (10th), thanks to Jalen Hurts. He picks up 7.5 yards per pass attempt and is a major reason why the team has the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league. Will the Eagles have another productive afternoon?
On the other side of the ball, the reigning NFC champs have been shakier. Philadelphia is giving up 22.4 points per game and three teams (the Commanders twice) have exceeded 30. They’re allowing a modest 5.2 yards per play (16th). The Eagles only have 14 takeaways, and give up 4.1 yards per rush attempt (13th). Philadelphia is better against the pass, thanks to 32 sacks (13th) and only surrendering 6.6 yards per pass attempt. This is another tough test. Will the Eagles allow 30+ again?
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Rating:
Even on the road, this game should be San Francisco’s to lose. Everything points to the 49ers being the better team. When healthy, they are the best team in football and they are mostly healthy. They score just as many points per game, allow far fewer, protect the ball better, force more turnovers, get more sacks, and protect Brock Purdy better than the Eagles protect Hurts.
Philadelphia’s defense consistently allowing 20+ points, even against weaker teams, is the greatest concern. They’re mediocre against the run, and here comes Christian McCaffrey. The Eagles will score, but won’t get enough stops to keep this within a field goal. Roll with the 49ers to get revenge.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -2.5
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