History suggests there’s more of a reason to be optimistic in the second round than the first
Believe it or not, the San Francisco 49ers have more than one pick in the NFL Draft. Thanks to four compensatory picks, the Niners have double-digit selections this year and are in an excellent position to add necessary depth.
We reviewed the recent history of selections at pick No. 31. Let’s do the same with the Niners’ second-round selection, No. 63, dating back through Kyle Shanahan’s tenure.
2023 – Denver Broncos – WR Marvin Mims
Mims didn’t have a significant role on offense as a rookie. At 5’11, 182 pounds, you can’t use Mims as a blocker, so you’re tipping your hand as a play-caller. But he’s an electric returner and a big-play threat when he’s in the game.
2022 – Buffalo Bills – RB James Cook
The end of the second round is when we begin to see the positional runs on running backs begin — especially if they’re worth it, like Cook was. The Bills needed to change offensive coordinators to maximize Cook’s role in their offense, but he flourished down the stretch.
This year, this round is too early for the 49ers to invest in a running back. Don’t be surprised if one is selected earlier than we’re anticipating.
2021 – Kansas City Chiefs – OC Creed Humphrey
Three picks in a row with three quality players. Humphrey would be the best-case scenario if the 49ers are looking for an offensive lineman to begin Day 2. He hasn’t missed a game in three years. Humphrey was an experienced starter at Oklahoma and has used that to quickly blossom into one of the better centers in the NFL at 24.
2020 – Kansas City Chiefs – LB Willie Gay Jr.
And this would be the argument against taking a linebacker in the second round. This sounds ignorant when we’re talking about a team with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw on it, but this is a position that has been devalued. If anything, Warner and Greenlaw are (extreme) examples of being able to find top talent at linebacker later on in the draft.
Gay Jr. was the run-and-chase athlete who would take the next step in coverage and diagnosing plays, but he never stayed healthy or developed. This offseason, Gay Jr. signed a one-year deal with the New Orleans Saints for $3 million.
2019 – Kansas City Chiefs – S Juan Thornhill
Three Chiefs picks in a row. Thornhill was popular in the draft community because of his range and speed. But his weakness was tackling, which made him too one-dimensional.
D.K. Metcalf was selected one pick later. Three picks after Metcalf was none other than Jalen Hurd.
2018 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Carlton Davis
Four different years, four different positions, and four realistic outcomes. Davis has flashed the skills of a CB1, but there’s no shame in six years of high-end CB2 play at the end of the second round. That’s what Davis gave Tampa Bay.
This was a popular area for defensive backs to be drafted in 2018, as Jessie Bates, Donte Jackson, Isaiah Oliver, Davis, and Justin Reid were selected from picks 54-68.
The Niners selected a former safety themselves out of BYU at pick 70. That turned out OK for the organization.
2017 – Buffalo Bills – OL Dion Dawkins
Dawkins is another outstanding example of getting a consistent starter at the end of the second round. Since 2018, Dawkins has only missed two games. He recently signed a contract extension with Buffalo for three years worth $60 million.
Other players taken in this range include Alvin Kamara and Cooper Kupp. So, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic that the Niners can draft an immediate contributor at pick No. 63 in this year’s draft.
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