Leicester City are defying pre-season expectations and are now predicted to earn Premier League survival.
The stats boffins at Opta have run the numbers of the campaign so far and say Steve Cooper’s side now have a 44.8 per cent chance of going down, the first time the number has been below 50 per cent. Before a ball was kicked, City, at 60.3 per cent to go down, were ranked alongside fellow promoted clubs Ipswich and Southampton as the favourites to be relegated, but six points from seven matches and a poor start for Wolves has seen City leap out of the predicted bottom three.
While 15th in the table after picking up their first win of the campaign over Bournemouth, there has still been concern over some aspects of the performances, with City taking the fewest shots and conceding the most efforts so far this season. But Opta’s supercomputer, which analyses teams based on historical and recent performance data as well as fixture schedules, does not seem as concerned.
It’s not that City have overachieved though. They have collected as many points as was expected from their first seven games. However, many of the teams near the bottom have underperformed.
Southampton, with just one point to their name so far, have picked up nine fewer than was expected of their opening seven matches. The Saints, City’s opponents this weekend, are now being given a 90.7 per cent chance of being relegated.
Wolves have also claimed just a single point from their opening seven fixtures, and have also underperformed by nine points. After a pre-season relegation likelihood of 20.9 per cent, Gary O’Neil’s side have shot up to 53.3 per cent.
The supercomputer is still expecting City to be in the battle at the bottom though. Right now, they are giving Cooper’s men just a 1.1 per cent chance of finishing in the top half.
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