Leeds United tasted defeat for the first time in the Championship during the 2024/25 campaign as they were beaten 1-0 by Burnley at Elland Road on Saturday.
Luca Koleosho scored the only goal of the game in the first half, after Manor Solomon’s slip, by running down the right flank before firing into the bottom corner of Illan Meslier’s net.
It was a bitterly disappointing afternoon in West Yorkshire for Daniel Farke because his side created enough chances and had enough of the ball to win the match.
They ended the game with 71% of the ball and two ‘big chances’ created, to Burnley’s zero, but were not clinical enough with the opportunities that they created, whilst the Clarets were ruthless with the one decent chance that came their way.
Leeds have only won two of their first five matches in the Championship and their wasteful finishing has played a part in that, as they have only scored seven goals from 8.77 xG in the division so far.
This was also an issue for the Whites in the 2023/24 campaign, as their strikers spurned too many chances, and it was not an issue that was resolved in the summer transfer window.
Leeds United’s striker woes
Patrick Bamford and Georginio Rutter, who has since moved on to join Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League, were the main centre-forward options for the bulk of last season for Farke.
The former did not cover himself in glory in front of goal, with a return of eight goals from 9.52 xG in 33 appearances in the Championship, and did not prove that he still has what it takes to be the starting number nine for Leeds.
Rutter, meanwhile, missed a staggering 17 ‘big chances’ and only scored six goals from 12.34 xG across 45 outings during the regular season for the Whites.
This shows that Farke’s first-choice number nines were both incredibly wasteful in front of goal last season as they underperformed their xG by a whopping 7.86 goals combined.
Mateo Joseph has started the current campaign as the main centre-forward but the 20-year-old starlet has not been at his prolific best so far, missing a ‘big chance’ against Burnley with an early one-on-one opportunity that went wide of the post.
| 2024/25 Championship | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | xG | Goals | xG differential |
| Mateo Joseph | 1.88 | 1 | -0.88 |
| Wilfried Gnonto | 1.35 | 1 | -0.35 |
| Joel Piroe | 0.93 | 1 | +0.07 |
| Patrick Bamford | 0.11 | 0 | -0.11 |
| Combined | 4.27 | 3 | -1.27 |
| Stats via WhoScored | |||
As you can see in the table above, Joseph, Gnonto, Piroe, and Bamford have underperformed their xG by 1.27 goals combined, with Piroe the only player overperforming/on par with his expected tally.
Joseph’s return of one goal from 1.88 xG, with two ‘big chances’ missed, suggests that Farke still has not solved his striker woes from the 2023/24 campaign.
The German head coach could solve that problem, however, by dipping into the market to find a free agent centre-forward who could provide his team with a boost in the final third.
Free agent striker options
There are a number of free agent strikers currently waiting to find new clubs after leaving their former teams ahead of the summer transfer window.
The most notable free agent number nine on the market is former Manchester United and Monaco star Anthony Martial, but he was reportedly on £247k-per-week at Old Trafford and played over 200 Premier League matches for the Red Devils.
This suggests that the France international is not a realistic target for a team in the Championship, with a Championship-sized budget, even as a free agent.
| Most valuable free agent strikers (16/09/2024) | |
|---|---|
| Player | Market value |
| Anthony Martial | €10m |
| Wissam Ben Yedder | €8m |
| Joao Pedro | €3m |
| Robin Quaison | €2.8m |
| Aaron Connolly | €2.5m |
| Via Transfermarkt | |
As you can see in the table above, Martial and Aaron Connolly are the only two strikers in the top-five most valuable free agent forwards with previous experience in England.
Given the obvious reasons why the former Manchester United man is not a viable target, Farke should consider a swoop to sign Connolly on a free transfer to solve Leeds’ striker woes in the coming weeks and months.
Why Leeds should sign Aaron Connolly
The Ireland international left Hull City at the end of last season and is yet to find a new club, which means that he is available to sign and play straight away.
At the age of 24, Connolly would not come in as a veteran free agent looking for a final payday with minimal availability and declining performances.
He is heading into, what should be, the peak years of his career and Leeds could unearth a gem by bringing him in and offering the forward a chance to shine in a team chasing promotion to the Premier League.
The right-footed whiz, whose movement was hailed as “top level” by former Tigers boss Liam Rosenior, joined Hull from Brighton after scoring five goals in 45 matches in the top-flight.
Connolly, who had plundered 31 goals in 42 matches for Brighton at U21 level, played 28 times for Hull in the Championship last term and showcased his finishing ability.
| 2023/24 Championship | Aaron Connolly |
|---|---|
| Appearances | 28 |
| Starts | 13 |
| xG | 6.62 |
| Goals | 8 |
| Big chances missed | 7 |
| Stats via Sofascore | |
As you can see in the table above, the free agent forward racked up eight goals from 6.62 xG, outperforming his expected tally, and only started 13 games.
His exceptional record at youth level for Brighton and his return of five goals in the Premier League suggests that the potential is there for him to be a top level forward, which was backed up by his impressive return in limited game time for the Tigers.
Connolly has shown that he has the ability to make the most of the chances that come his way at Championship level, as shown by his xG last term, and that is why he could solve Leeds’ striker woes.
Whilst the likes of Joseph and Bamford have struggled with the quality of chances that have come their way, the Irishman could come in and provide a boost in the final third with his ability in front of goal as a free agent signing for Farke.
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