Bringing on a centre-back to protect a lead only for that same centre-back to concede a penalty that denies the club their first victory of the season is bound to cause a commotion.
Leicester City were within touching distance of three points at Crystal Palace, but left with just one, and with fingers being pointed. A few days on, the decisions that led to Conor Coady tripping Ismaila Sarr are still a topic for debate. Questions are being asked of Steve Cooper.
Why did he bring on an extra centre-back? Is he something he does all of the time? Does it ever work? Is this going to be a theme of City’s season?
The first of those questions relates specifically to Saturday’s match and Cooper’s explanation, that the change was in response to Palace’s attacking subs, makes sense, albeit the balance of the team was affected and City struggled to get out of their half, only raising the pressure they were under. For the other questions, a deeper dive is required.
City’s draw at Palace was the 15th time in 58 games as a Premier League manager that Cooper’s team has been leading going into the final 15 minutes of a match. Of the previous 14 times, 11 ended in victory, and three did not.
Analysing those 14 games, it does not appear that throwing on a third centre-back is a particularly favoured tactic of Cooper’s. But when he has done it, it’s not always been that successful.
Prior to Saturday, it’s something Cooper had only done three times in Premier League matches where his side has been defending a lead late on. Against Liverpool in 22-23, it worked, Nottingham Forest seeing out a 1-0 win. Against Southampton in the same season, it was just about successful, with Forest claiming a 4-3 victory, but only after conceding a late penalty to see their advantage reduced.
Against Wolves that term, it didn’t work. Joe Worrall came on for Emmanuel Dennis with Forest a goal ahead, only for Daniel Podence to score an 83rd-minute equaliser to earn a share of the points for Wolves.
But while centre-back substitutions are not all that common, defensive changes are. In five more of the games where Forest successfully held on for the win, Cooper did make tweaks, usually by bringing on a wing-back or a deep midfielder for a forward. There are nuances to observe too, as in some of the games where Forest didn’t make changes, they had started the match with three centre-backs on the pitch, and with no further options on the bench to turn to.
That was the case for a 2-1 defeat at Brentford in 22-23. Forward Brennan Johnson was replaced by defensive midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate just after the hour with Forest 1-0 up. Goals were conceded in the 82nd and 94th minutes.
For a 2-2 draw with Luton last season, Cooper’s substitutions did not change Forest’s shape in any way, but they were criticised by supporters. Forest led 2-0 when the first batch of changes were made, with Luton getting one back soon after. After a couple more subs came on, the Hatters equalised. However, in the build-up to that game, one of the topics at Cooper’s pre-match press conference had been the number of goals scored by substitutes he had introduced.
As far as late drama goes across his Premier League career, Cooper has lost more points than he’s won. With Forest in 22-23, they had a net loss of three points in the final 15 minutes of matches, winning four, but losing seven. That three-point deficit is not great, but neither was it the worst in the league. That honour, of course, went to Leicester, with a six-point deficit. Everton, West Ham, and Man City also had a worse record than Forest. Last season, before he was sacked, Cooper won two points but lost four in the final 15 minutes for a deficit of two.
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