Isn’t this weird! If Cooper Flagg stays at Duke for another year, he could forfeit between $75 million and $125 million in future NBA earnings due to delaying his entry into the league.

Isn’t this weird! If Cooper Flagg stays at Duke for another year, he could forfeit between $75 million and $125 million in future NBA earnings due to delaying his entry into the league.

Cooper Flagg’s potential decision to return to Duke for a second season could have massive financial implications, particularly when considering the long-term effects on his NBA earnings. Based on estimated cap projections, delaying his entry into the NBA could ultimately cost him between $75 million and $125 million over the course of his career.

The reasoning behind this estimate comes from how NBA contracts are structured. Rookie contracts are set on a scale, and while a No. 1 overall pick in 2025 would still earn substantial money on his first deal, the real financial windfall comes with the second and third contracts—when star players typically sign max extensions. By staying in college an extra year, Flagg would push back the timeline for these lucrative deals, costing himself an additional year of max earnings later in his career.

For example, if Flagg enters the 2025 NBA Draft, he would be set up to sign a supermax or near-max extension by 2029 and another massive contract in 2034, potentially exceeding $400 million combined under projected salary cap growth. If he instead stays at Duke for the 2025-26 season and enters the NBA in 2026, his service clock is delayed, meaning his second and third contracts would come at later stages of his career—when teams might be less willing to offer a full max due to age or potential decline.

Additionally, the NBA’s new media rights deal, expected to significantly boost the salary cap by the end of the decade, further amplifies this financial risk. Entering the league earlier would allow Flagg to maximize his earnings under those rising caps, rather than catching the tail end of peak contract values if he waits a year.

While the decision to stay at Duke could be beneficial in terms of personal development, legacy, and NIL earnings (which could be in the eight-figure range), the long-term financial sacrifice in NBA salary would be massive. If Flagg is a projected No. 1 pick, there is a compelling financial case for him to enter the draft as soon as possible.