Confirmed: What Springboks must do to finish No 1 in rankings

We have now reached the final set of mainstream Test fixtures for the year, which will kick off on Friday with France hosting Argentina (kick off at 22:10 SA time), while the headline fixture will of course be the Springboks tackling Wales (19:40 kick off time) on Saturday.

There are more high profile matches on Saturday, with Ireland facing Fiji (17:10 kick off), and Italy taking on New Zealand (22:10 kick off time).

On Sunday, there will be two more Tests to look forward to as Scotland play Australia (15:40 kick off time), and England take on Japan (18:10).

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the men’s internationals, and the only way the Springboks could not finish the year in top spot is if they suffer a shock – and unforeseeable – defeat to Wales.

Permutation highlights for the Springboks to take note of:

• The Springboks cannot improve their rating and advantage at the top of the rankings due to the 18.77-point difference between themselves and opponents Wales before home weighting is factored in.
• The fact that the same is true for Ireland in second if they beat Fiji – with a rating 10.71 points below Ireland – means the Irish cannot reclaim top spot if South Africa also win.
• However, if South Africa lose to Wales then a victorious Ireland will return to the summit of the rankings, potentially by as little as 0.02 rating points.
• New Zealand are the only team in the top three who can improve their rating in victory this weekend, but they would need the teams above them to slip up to stand any chance of climbing the rankings.
• For New Zealand to become number one for the first time since the semi-finals of Rugby World Cup 2019, they must beat Italy in Turin and hope that the Springboks lose by more than 15 points and Ireland are also beaten.

Other factors to keep in mind:

• Fourth-place France need a favour from Italy as well as beating Argentina in the opening match of the weekend if they are to climb above New Zealand into third.
• Les Bleus can end the weekend in second if they win, New Zealand lose and Ireland are beaten by more than 15 points by Fiji – a scenario that would see France and Ireland swap places.
• However, defeat for Les Bleus at the Stade de France will see Argentina leapfrog them in the rankings and move up to fourth.
• Third place is possible for Los Pumas but they would have to win by more than 15 points and hope New Zealand suffer a similarly large defeat for that to happen.
• Scotland cannot improve on sixth place this weekend despite being able to pick nearly a point for an emphatic win over in-form Australia.
• However, if eighth-ranked Australia keep their Grand Slam tour hopes alive then they will replace Scotland in sixth place with the sides potentially swapping places.
• Scotland could drop as many as four places to 10th if they are heavily beaten, Italy pull off a shock win against the All Blacks and Fiji avoid defeat in Dublin.
• England cannot improve their rating against Japan this weekend due to the 9.36-point gap between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
• They could even end a five-match losing run and still fall a place to eighth – equalling their lowest-ever position – if the match at Murrayfield ends in a draw.
• A fourth defeat of the Autumn Nations Series could actually see England sink as low as 10th if they lose at home to Japan, Italy win and Fiji and Australia avoid defeat.
• For Italy to equal their highest-ever position of eighth, they need to beat the All Blacks for the first time in history and hope that England and Fiji suffer defeats.
• Fiji, meanwhile, could climb to an-time high of sixth if they can beat Ireland by more than 15 points in Dublin and other results go their way.
• Wales would need to be beaten by South Africa and England suffer defeat at the hands of Japan for them to drop to a new all-time low of 12th, with the Brave Blossoms replacing them in 11th.
• Georgia, the side immediately below Wales, cannot overtake them this weekend as a win against lower-ranked Tonga won’t be rewarded with any rating improvement given the 8.40 rating points difference between the sides before home weighting is factored in.

WEEKEND TEST FIXTURES

All times SA

FRIDAY, 22 NOVEMBER

France vs Argentina – 22:10

SATURDAY, 23 NOVEMBER

Spain vs USA – 13:45

Ireland vs Fiji – 17:10

Romania vs Uruguay – 18:00

Wales vs Springboks – 19:40

Italy vs New Zealand – 22:10

SUNDAY, 24 NOVEMBER

Scotland vs Australia – 15:40

England vs Japan – 18:10

LATEST WORLD RUGBY RANKINGS AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND

TEAMS

Wales

15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Will Rowlands, 4 Christ Tshiunza, 3 Gareth Thomas, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Archie Griffin

Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Eddie James, 23 Josh Hathaway

Springboks

15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Thomas du Toit

Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Handre Pollard