Split image of Blair Murray, Wales coach Warren Gatland and Springboks boss Rassie Erasmus and winger Cheslin Kolbe.
Wales and the Springboks close off their contrasting 2024 international seasons on Saturday evening at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff.
Rassie Erasmus’ Boks will aim to finish the year with a record reading 13 matches, 11 wins and two defeats and remain top of the World Rugby rankings.
However, they face a desperate Wales team that is yet to win a single Test match all year and are enduring their worst-ever run of defeats which currently stands at 11. The old cliche of there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal would usually come into effect here and Erasmus and his charges will be wary of that, but it looks more like Warren Gatland’s men are haemorrhaging rather than dealing with a flesh wound.
For much of the 2010s, this was a fierce contest between the two teams with Wales often getting the upper hand in the tight matches. However, that has changed significantly with the Springboks winning six of their last seven encounters after losing four in a row. The last three South African wins have also come by margins of more than 15 points – this after the previous seven Tests were decided by margins of fewer than 10.
While Wales have succumbed to 11 straight Test defeats, the world champions arrive at the iconic Principality Stadium having won 14 of their last 16 matches with both of their defeats in 2024 coming by a single point. Erasmus has not been overly pleased by the performances of his team over the past fortnight despite the fact they have swept Scotland and England aside. Those wins now mean that the Springboks have the opportunity to win all of their November internationals, something they have not achieved since 2013.
The odds are certainly stacked up against Wales, who have not won a Test match since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, with the pressure mounting on Gatland.
Where the game will be won
Ahead of South Africa’s clash against England last week, ex-international prop Joe Marler pinpointed the Springboks’ power game in what sets them apart from the rest stating that if you want to beat Erasmus’ men, you have get the ‘old-school mauling, brawling and scrummaging’ spot on to have a chance. He added that in doing that, you stall the Springboks ‘Plan A’ – their power game – and while they do have a Plan B, it’s not as good.
Frankly, Marler hit the nail on the head for the most part as the only way to beat this Springboks team is to at least get parity in the scrums, mauls and breakdown, and possibly dominate one of those facets. Argentina and Ireland did so at the breakdown in their wins over the Boks but, even then, it was nip and tuck to get over the line.
For Wales, if they hope to have even the slimmest hope of clinching an almighty upset, they will need to be on point in those facets of the game and then the lineout too – which was horrific in their loss to Australia.
Winning is a habit that the Springboks are enjoying at the moment and the complete opposite is true for Wales, which always plays a major role but, if Gatland’s men are to kick the habit, they have to be nigh on perfect in the aforementioned facets of the game and then have a bit of luck along the way.
Last time they met
What they said
Despite Wales’ torrid run of form, Springboks boss Erasmus is not underestimating the threat that Gatland’s men pose. This after South Africa were in a similar rut in terms of results before the current head coach took charge of the team in 2018.
“Warren can’t all of a sudden become a bad coach with his track record and if you look at the players individually there are definitely some world-class players,” he said after announcing his team on Tuesday.
“I know the record of losing 11 on the trot is obviously not great but, whenever we play a team whose backs are against the wall, we take ourselves back to before I took over and we lost 57-0 in New Zealand, but then the next weekend we lost by two points to the same team at Newlands.
“I just know that Warren is a great coach and I do know they’ve got great players and whatever is not quite clicking there, but he is a guy who has fixed things before.”
Meanwhile, after appearing rather dejected and defeated following the loss to Australia, Gatland expressed his desire to turn things around and stay on as Wales boss beyond this weekend. Pressure is certainly mounting on the experienced head coach and he has said that he is willing to step down from the role if it is deemed that is the best thing for Welsh Rugby.
“Absolutely,” he said when asked if he has a desire to continue in his role.
“I think we’ve been pretty clear in terms of the plan we’ve had. We’ve got a group of young players that need a bit of time.
“I’m aware of the pressure and that decisions could be made outside of my control.
“We’ve just asked for a little bit of time. Whether we get that time, we’ll have to wait and see.”
Much of the talk has been around Gatland’s future in the position but turning his attention to the task at hand this weekend, the Wales head coach has called for his charges to be courageous.
“Last week’s result hurts, and we are just as disappointed by it as the fans,” he told reporters.
“Our focus now is on training and preparing well for our final game of this Autumn Nations Series.
“There were good elements that we can definitely build on going into Saturday, but we have to improve our accuracy.
“We know what a quality side South Africa are and the physicality they bring. This week, we need to show real courage and front up against the world champions.”
Players to watch
While Wales have struggled this November, Dewi Lake has been sublime and really looks like one of the few Welshmen who could be on the plane to Australia next year for the British and Irish Lions tour. The Wales captain is a beast in the tight exchanges and while the lineout failed against the Wallabies, it was not purely down to his darts. Erasmus noted that Wales do have world-class players in their ranks and Lake is very much one of them.
Earlier this year, little-known Bath prop Archie Griffin made his Test debut for Wales in the Six Nations and while it has not been plain-sailing since, the 23-year-old tighthead produced probably his best performance in the red jersey against the Wallabies. He went toe-to-toe with one of the best loosehead props in the game in the form of Angus Bell and will have an even bigger task this weekend despite the Boks losing Ox Nche to injury.
It’s been some six months for Blair Murray, who earlier this year missed out on a Super Rugby contract and was eventually picked up by the Scarlets ahead of the 2024/25 United Rugby Championship (URC) season. Despite playing just a handful of games for the Welsh side, he caught Gatland’s eye, who handed him a Test debut against Fiji this November, and he marked the occasion with a stunning try. On Saturday, he shifts from the wing to full-back and will look to make his mark with his blistering pace and excellent handling skills.
When he appears from the bench, Cameron Hanekom will become the 52nd player to represent the Springboks this year. The powerhouse forward initially missed out on the touring squad for the Autumn Nations Series but earned a late call-up after injuries in the squad and will now make his highly-anticipated Test debut. An all-action back-rower, Hanekom is a real threat with ball in hand, on defence and at the breakdown having impressed in all facets of the game with the Bulls in the URC. Hanekom has all the raw materials to become a world-class loose forward and Saturday will be his first step to achieving that.
Meanwhile, Hanekom’s clubmate Johan Grobbelaar gets a rare opportunity in the starting XV having also missed out on the initial squad for the tour. The excellent hooker made his Test debut against Portugal earlier this year and earned just one other game, against Australia in the Rugby Championship. Malcolm Marx and Bongi Mbonambi have otherwise dominated the hooker roles but this weekend Grobbelaar has a fresh opportunity to stamp his mark and make a claim for more opportunities in the Green and Gold jumper going forward.
Cheslin Kolbe was on top form against England last weekend, scoring a brace in the Springboks’ victory at Twickenham. The speedster has been nominated for the World Rugby Player of the Year after another standout campaign for South Africa, dazzling with his incredible skill set and sensational footwork. Rio Dyer will need to be at his absolute best to keep the Bok star quiet.
Main head-to-head
There are tasty head-to-heads littered across the two starting XVs but the battle between the two fly-halves pressing for more minutes in the international set-up is the pick of the lot with Sam Costelow and Jordan Hendrikse battling it out.
Costelow looked to be Gatland’s first-choice number 10 earlier this year as he started all but one of Wales’ Six Nations matches, but that all changed in July when Ben Thomas started both games against the Wallabies. Gareth Anscombe then got the nod for the games against Fiji and Australia this November with Costelow restricted to cameos off the bench – one of which was on the wing. The 23-year-old has impressed in the past for Wales and has the attributes to be a fine playmaker for the side but, right now, the rookie is struggling to nail down the jumper. A strong performance against the Springboks, however, could see him move up the pecking order.
Meanwhile, Hendrikse lines up alongside his brother, Jaden, for the first time in the Springboks jersey as he earns his second Test cap after debuting against Wales in June. Erasmus has been spoilt for choice this year at fly-half with Hendrikse, Handre Pollard, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Manie Libbok all getting starts in the jersey. However, Hendrikse’s two caps have been five months apart and he will be looking to use this opportunity to impress and put pressure on the likes of Libbok and Mngomezulu. Blessed with a canon boot, Hendrikse has also played at centre and full-back at club level and, with the Boks embracing versatility in recent years, he is just the kind of player that Erasmus wants in his squads.
Prediction
When these two sides met earlier this year, we predicted a Springboks win of at least 30 points and fell just a conversion off that mark and sadly for Wales, we cannot see them doing much better this time around. Saturday could very well be the final time that Gatland is in charge of the team, particularly if their record run of losses extends to 12. We expect Wales to come flying out the blocks from the first whistle but, ultimately, they will run out of steam against the best team in the world, particularly when Erasmus empties his bench. It would be a real Cinderella-esque story if Wales upset the Springboks but there is no fairytale ending here for Gatland as Erasmus’ men should blow them off the park, claiming an emphatic victory of more than 25 points.
Previous results
2024: South Africa won 41-13 at Twickenham
2023: South Africa won 52-16 in Cardiff
2022: South Africa won 40-30 in Cape Town
2022: Wales won 13-12 in Bloemfontein
2022: South Africa won 32-29 in Pretoria
2021: South Africa won 23-18 in Cardiff
2019: South Africa won 19-16 in Yokohama (RWC)
2018: South Africa won 20-11 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 22-20 in Washington DC
2017: Wales won 24-22 in Cardiff
2016: Wales won 27-13 in Cardiff
The teams
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Christ Tshiunza, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Eddie James, 23 Josh Hathaway
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Thomas du Toit
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Handre Pollard
Date: Saturday, November 23
Venue: Principality Stadium
Kick-off: 17:40 GMT (19:40 SAST)
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referees: Christophe Ridley (England), Damian Schneider (Argentina)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (England)
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