In 2024, the Atlanta Braves offense may join rarified air
The offense of the Atlanta Braves may accomplish something that has only been done once in baseball history.
From a power standpoint, the Atlanta Braves offense was historic in 2023, launching a record-tying 307 home runs and creating a new MLB high-water mark as a team.Slugging percentage of 501.
However, they have an opportunity to do even better in 2024.
Only one MLB team in history has amassed more than 200 home runs and 200 steals in a single season, the 1996 Colorado Rockies, according to Baseball Reference’s Stathead database. Walt Weiss and Eric Young Sr., two former Braves coaches, helped the 1996 Rockies field six double-digit base stealers and four different hitters with 30 bombs or more. Andrés Gallaraga had 47 home runs for a team that somehow finished only 83-79 and in third place, while Young led the team with 53 steals location within the NL West.
However, Atlanta might be the second team to do so this season.
After hitting 307 home runs last season (and somehow missing out on even more from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson), Atlanta feels like they’re going to be set in terms of power. The only new player in the lineup is Jarred Kelenic, who will take the place of Eddie Rosario and Kevin Pillar in the left field platoon.
With basic regression taken into consideration, this roster appears certain to reach over two hundred home runs. In all of baseball, 21 players had 250 batted balls with an EV50 of at least 103.3 mph. Of the twenty-one, Atlanta has the most, six, led by Ronald Acuña Jr. (106.4), the second-best player in baseball, and Matt Olson (104.8, sixth), who also ranks in the top ten. Sean Murphy, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, and Michael Harris II are all currently ranked in the top 25.
With Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber as their duo, Philadelphia is the only MLB team with more than two of these players at the moment. However, the pairing of DH JD Martinez & 3B Matt Chapman, who are both free agents, could increase that number.
(EV50, a more recent Statcast metric intended to better represent overall power in a hitter’s profile than average exit velocity, is the average of the hardest 50% of a hitter’s batted ball events.)
To put the additions and deletions from the lineup in perspective, Eddie Rosario’s 98.6 and Kevin Pillar’s 98.4 are replaced by Jarred Kelenic’s 101.5 EV50 from Seattle. (Pillar did not achieve the required 2.1 PAs per team game in order to be included in the leaderboards.)
Without significant adjustments, it is more difficult to envision Atlanta tying the Rockies in this area.
Indeed, the Braves achieved a top ten league total in base theft with 132 in the inaugural season of the new regulations. However, Acuña did not contribute equally to the labor distribution, as he was responsible for 73 bags by himself. Just two players on the rest of the roster reached double digits, with Ozzie Albies (13) and Michael Harris II (20) being the only ones with more than nine stolen bases.
Apart from the obvious “run a lot more,” what else needs to happen for Atlanta to significantly increase their stolen bases?
Sure, it will ultimately come down to making more steals, but staff changes and improved health can also be beneficial.
While Eddie Rosario, who is no longer with us, had nearly the same sprint speed last season (28.0 feet per second for Kelenic vs. 27.9 for Rosario), new leftfielder Jarred Kelenic performs significantly better as a baserunner than Rosario, who was below average in Baserunning Run Value according to MLB Statcast.
As of this point in spring training, Forrest Wall, the team’s default fourth outfielder, may be the fastest player on the field. He represents a substantial baserunning improvement over Kevin Pillar and the Braves bench as a whole in terms of speed.
Atlanta should be more active on the basepaths as a result of the roster changes and improved health of Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. Harris attempted 19 of his 24 stolen base attempts after June 7, when he both felt better after suffering leg and back injuries early in the season and after Marcell Ozuna gave the young outfielder a crucial pep talk.
If all goes according to plan, Atlanta might have four regular players who are capable of stealing ten or more bases, along with Wall, a valuable backup who is a very effective minor league base stealer. Wall set a Gwinnett record last season by stealing 52 bags in 60 attempts in just 90 games.
Atlanta’s chances of breaking 200 steals are not good, according to the different FanGraphs projection systems.
The majority of projection systems have Atlanta finishing well under 200 steals, with the disclaimer that they are by nature conservative.
Based on the Depth Charts projections, which take into account expected playing time and combine the results of the ZiPS and Steamer projection engines, Atlanta is projected to end the 2024 season with just 121 steals, which is eleven fewer than the previous one.
Once again, Acuña leads the team with just 53, followed by Harris II with 24, Kelenic and Albies at 14 and 12, and nobody else getting enough playing time or running enough to finish with double digits in stolen base attempts, let alone actual stolen bases.
There is now cause for concern that the system may not be fully tuned to the intricacies of Atlanta’s roster. FanGraphs shows Kelenic playing just 121 games, defying recent reports. However, Alex Anthopoulos has told us directly that the intention is to play the newly acquired left fielder every day. Furthermore, Wall attempted six steals in the previous season despite not being called up until mid-July; given that Anthopoulos acknowledged that speed played a significant role in the team’s decision to use Wall’s bench spots, it is likely that the team intends to use Wall more strategically in 2024.
Does Atlanta still have a chance for a 200/200 season?
In late February, it doesn’t seem likely from where we are. But never say never—Ronaldo has stated he plans to carry on pilfering bags from the leadoff position, drawing comparisons to the legendary Rickey Henderson of the Oakland A’s. Additionally, Wall, Harris, Albies, and Kelenic can all easily contribute more to push Atlanta closer to 200 runs.
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