An odd scheduling quirk already has the Minnesota Vikings playing the Detroit Lions twice in the next three games, and a quick reading of the tea leaves reveals a strong possibility of a third matchup in the Wild Card round.
Three matchups between division rivals in a 21-day span? Sign us all up. This is the type of stuff that rivalries are built on.
It’s been 11 years since the Vikings and Green Bay Packers played high-stakes games in back-to-back weeks. It started with Week 17 at the Metrodome, where Minnesota needed (and got) a win to force a road rematch in the Wild Card round. Die-hards remember the hype leading into the first meeting and how it only multiplied in the days leading up to the playoff meeting (i.e., the Joe Webb game). While the hatred doesn’t flow as deeply between the Vikings and Lions, a three-match extravaganza might be the inciting event that keeps the NFC North’s bad blood boiling in a post-Aaron Rodgers world.
Not only would this be a whole lot of fun, but it’s also the far-and-away preferred playoff matchup for the Vikings. The alternatives would be a doomsday date in San Francisco, Philadelphia, or Dallas. Detroit is a different animal this year, but their domed confines at Ford Field are more familiar and less formidable to the Vikings than other NFC venues.
The Vikings have to get to the dance first, of course. If the playoffs began today, the Vikings would visit Detroit. But there are no less than seven bajillion permutations that could change things in the next three weeks. So, let’s try to simplify it.
Conventional wisdom suggests the Vikings must win two out of their final three games to make the playoffs. If that occurs, two out of the three 7-7 challengers (the New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams) would need to run the table and knock them out. Since the Saints and Rams play each other, one is guaranteed to lose, which only weakens that possibility.
At 9-8, Minnesota would hold an 8-4 conference record that gives them tiebreakers over the Rams and Seahawks if they finished at the same mark. The Vikings own the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Saints, so Minnesota would come out on top in a pileup of 9-8 teams. Whether they are a No. 6- or a No. 7-seed depends on whether any teams rattle off three in a row and pass them outright.
Winning two of the final three inherently means the Vikings must beat Detroit once. Any Lions loss at this point delivers a blow to their hopes of rising to the No. 2 seed. But Detroit’s Week 17 tilt in primetime in Dallas on Dec. 30 will be the real determinator. The winner takes the tiebreaker and the inside track to the No. 2 seed. If Minnesota wants Detroit in the playoffs, they will be rooting for the Dallas Cowboys for several reasons. Not only would a Dallas win lodge the Lions into the No. 3 seed, but it may also remove any incentive Detroit has to play its starters in Week 18 against Minnesota. At that point, the Vikings could be playing to set up a Ford Field rematch in the playoffs, and fans who head to the game may as well book their hotels for an extra week.
The Vikings are currently +100 to make the playoffs on FanDuel — virtually a coin flip. Their Super Bowl odds? A dismal +13000, the 18th-highest in the NFL. With Nick Mullens at quarterback, it might be farfetched to expect Minnesota to make a significant playoff run, just as it was farfetched that Christian Ponder would lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl in 2012 after beating the Packers in Week 17.
But would there be a better way to salvage some thrills out of a frustrating season?
Trash talk would be off the charts. Vikings fans would see how Kevin O’Connell fares in a chess match against the same coach in three out of four weeks. Brian Flores would get multiple cracks at the flusterable Jared Goff. Mullens would get to throw up 50/50 balls against a vulnerable Lions secondary. Did I mention the trash talk?
NFL teams rarely get a chance to face each other a third team during the season, and almost never in this tight a span. The cat and mouse game would be electric. Let’s manifest this one. Reserve your flights to Detroit, people.
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