We finally saw the first major move of the offseason when the Philadelphia Phillies re-signed right-hander Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal. That comes in right around the projected average annual salary, although at a year or two longer than expected, and is the 11th-highest total value contract ever given to a pitcher — for a guy who has been durable, yes, but has a 4.09 ERA over the past three seasons.
When Dave Dombrowski wants a player, however, he usually gets him, and Nola has been instrumental to the Phillies’ success in recent seasons. We’ll see how Nola’s deal affects the rest of the market, but it could be the price for pitching will be even higher than anticipated — and push some teams to look for pitching help via trades, or settle for the second- and third-tier starters available in free agency.
Now that the Phillies have made their big move of the offseason, let’s consider what the other 29 teams might do to win the winter. This is a fun exercise akin to putting together a jigsaw puzzle. Since we can only use a player once — after all, only one team will land Shohei Ohtani — it’s all about getting things to fit while sticking to realistic payroll considerations, and a reminder that teams need backup plans to their backup plan. We’re going to find a home for the top 25 free agents from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 list and make a few trades as well.
Hey, we said win the winter, right? Buster Olney recently said on Michael Kay’s radio show that Soto “100%” will be traded. Jeff Passan ran through the Padres’ payroll situation and said on the Yes Network that “if you want a payroll of $200 million, as the Padres would like to do for next season, Juan Soto simply can’t be a part of it.” Alden Gonzalez ran through all the Soto trade buzz from the general managers meetings. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox are the betting favorites to land Soto, but while those teams are busy chasing Ohtani, maybe the Mariners can sneak in here. Remember: Jerry Dipoto and A.J. Preller have made several deals in the past.
The Padres get three major league ready players in Woo, Marlowe and Berroa, including two potential starting pitchers (which the Padres need with Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez all free agents). Ford is a top-100 prospect. No, it’s not what the Padres gave up in acquiring Soto, but that’s a nice haul for one year of Soto.
For the Mariners, after ending their playoff drought in 2022, they played it safe last offseason — and watched the Rangers leapfrog over them. They need to go outside their comfort zone and think big. So why stop at Soto? Snell is from Seattle, and while the hometown factor is often overrated, Snell grew up a huge Ken Griffey Jr. fan. Plus, while everyone acts like Seattle is deep in pitching and weak on offense, that assessment is ignoring what T-Mobile Park does to offense: The Mariners were actually sixth in the majors in road OPS in 2023 while their rotation was 12th in ERA and OPS allowed.
Yes, the Mariners would be pushing their payroll much higher than ever — but Soto’s projected $33 million salary is just a one-year hit. They’ve put themselves in position to make a move like this with a still-deep farm system that included three first-round picks in 2023. Now imagine a rotation of Snell, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller (with Robbie Ray hopefully returning in the second half) and a lineup anchored by Soto and Julio Rodriguez.
The Mets entered the offseason with the highest rostered payroll at approximately $263 million but new president of baseball operations David Stearns is kind of stuck in no-man’s land: You don’t want to punt 2024 with a payroll that high while coming off a disappointing season, but you also don’t want to repeat the same mistakes and lose 87 games again. As Stearns said, it will be a fine line between competing in 2024 while also building a better roster for the future.
Yamamoto solves both issues. He’s just 25 and ranks as perhaps one of the top five or six pitchers in the world, which is why Kiley’s estimate comes in at just over $30 million per season. He is undersized at 5-foot-10, but he pitches off a mid-90s fastball with a plus splitter, plus curveball and elite command. He allowed just two home runs in 171 innings in Japan while posting a 1.16 ERA — his third straight season below 2.00. No, he won’t keep his home run rate that low over here, but Yamamoto has everything you want in a starter other than size. He’s better than Kodai Senga, who signed with the Mets and had an excellent rookie season with a 2.98 ERA. If the Mets want him, Steve Cohen certainly won’t shy away from making the largest offer.
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