Over the last two seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense was as fun to watch as the hobbling scene from Misery.
The Matt Canada experience was one full of bad concepts, a paper-thin playbook, and was so predictable that everyone watching at home knew what was about to happen whenever the Steelers got set at the line of scrimmage.
How many times did you say “Here comes a swing pass to Najee” or “I bet this is gonna be a jet sweep?” Probably too many, and I apologize for that Matt Canada PTSD triggers.
Luckily, that kind of predictability won’t be taking place in Arthur Smith’s offense. Here, I’ll break down Arthur Smith’s schematic tendencies in the pass game, and the discrepancies between Smith’s offense and the Canada offense.
Schematic Tendencies
I don’t like calling the Steelers’ offense in 2023 vanilla because at least vanilla tastes good. Matt Canada’s offense was as inventive as stale Cheerios. They came out in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) on first down at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
As we discussed in the piece about what the Steelers’ run game will look like, the Falcons liked heavier personnel, usually lining up with two tight ends on the field. Atlanta was last in the NFL in 11 personnel on first down, but were fourth in 12 and first in 22 personnel.
The Steelers also lined up in shotgun a ton on early downs. They were seventh in the NFL in coming out in shotgun on first down, doing so 50 percent of the time- the Falcons were last at 20 percent. The Falcons were also fourth in coming out in I-formation on first down.
Heavy personnel plus I-formation signifies a clear goal- run it down your throat on early downs to set up second down and medium or second down and short.
In terms of passing out of two tight end sets, there was only one quarterback in the NFL with 150 pass attempts in such formations- Desmond Ridder. Ridder had 218 dropbacks out of 12 personnel- the next closest quarterback was Patrick Mahomes with 165.
The Steelers had a combined 91 dropbacks with two tight ends on the field in 2023, so that will be a massive difference from last season. The Falcons also led the NFL in target distribution to tight ends in 2023- the Steelers were 22nd.
The Falcons were also last in the NFL in target distribution to receivers and third to running backs. In their defense, Atlanta didn’t have a high-quality receiver outside of Drake London, and Kyle Pitts was basically used as a slot receiver (more on that in the piece on Pat Freiermuth).
The Falcons were also more aggressive in the passing game. Their average depth of target was 10th in the NFL- the Steelers were 20th, per NFELO. The Falcons were also eighth in the league in throwing vs. the sticks- the Steelers were 15th. That is the element I’m most looking forward to this season. The Steelers didn’t have a quarterback that could push the ball downfield until they finally started Mason Rudolph in the final month of the season. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields can both launch it, and you can bet that Arthur Smith will take advantage of that, especially out of play action which Smith uses a ton of.
Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke combined for 164 dropbacks out of play action, which was the third most in the NFL, per Sports Info Solutions). Wilson also thrived in play action last year. He was second in the NFL with 10 touchdown passes off play action. To compare, Kenny Pickett only had 56 dropbacks out of play action and threw just two touchdowns. Play action will be a huge part of what the Steelers do in 2024, and they have two quarterbacks that are capable of running the offense.
Similar Issues
That was a huge problem with the Steelers last season- they were awful on first down. From Weeks 1-10, the Steelers were 22nd in the league in EPA per dropback on first down. That lack of effectiveness on first down led to Pittsburgh being 27th in plays per drive and 26th in yards per drive. At the same time, the Steelers led the NFL in punts per drive and were third in three-and-outs per drive (all per FTN and Aaron Schatz’ DVOA). So while the Steelers didn’t turn the ball over a ton, those constant three-and-outs and punts more than cancelled out the lack of turnovers.
The Falcons had similar issues to Pittsburgh that stemmed from bad quarterback play. Smith’s offense was much more dynamic and inventive, it just so happened that Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke couldn’t hit receivers that were open. So when you look at the raw numbers, it may freak you out. The Steelers were 26th in yards per drive, the Falcons were 21st. The Steelers were 28th in points per drive, the Falcons were 27th. So on the surface, it may look as if the Steelers didn’t upgrade all that much. However, let’s go back to when Smith had a competent quarterback while running the same offense.
In 2020, the Tians were second in the NFL in points per drive, third in yards per drive, and second in touchdowns per drive. What did he have that season? A really good run game, a stud deep-ball receiver, and a quarterback who thrived off play action deep balls. The Steelers had a good run game in a bad offense last season, so one could assume it will be better in 2024. They have a deep ball receiver who can pull down 50-50 balls in George Pickens, and two quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields who can both chuck it deep.
In totality, the Steelers offense will fall somewhere in the middle of what we saw from the Titans in 2020 and the Falcons of 2023. Will they be as good as Tennessee was that season? I doubt it. A big factor in their offense being one of the best in football was they had Derrick Henry at the absolute peak of his powers, and that is what the entire offense ran through. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a Derrick Henry, but a run attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren has proven to be very effective, and we know how great of a deep ball threat George Pickens is. So while they likely won’t be a top three offense in the league, they don’t need to be.
Last season, Pittsburgh was 23rd in EPA per play (and 26th before Rudolph took over). They were also 29th in points per game. If they can bump that up to being 14th in EPA and go from 17.9 points per game to 20.5 points per game- just be perfectly in the middle of the NFL while the defense is just as good, if not better, than it was last year. If they do that, they’re an 11-team and could finally snap the playoff winless drought.
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